July 28, 2026

Market Overview 22-07-2026 to 28-07-2026

Precious Metals Market – At a Turning Point?

Last week, the major precious metals markets collectively recorded price declines. In searching for the reasons behind this growing investor pessimism, analysts point to a rapidly increasing probability of higher interest rates, forecasts from the world’s leading mining companies, as well as the tense and highly unpredictable geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

Between July 22 and July 28, the global gold price fell by around 2% to USD 4,047 per troy ounce.

The recent decline in gold prices has been driven by unexpected forecasts regarding US interest rates. Although most analysts and investors still expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the autumn or winter, there is growing discussion that rates could be increased as early as this summer.

The preliminary probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its July 29 meeting currently stands at around 35%. This probability is derived from actual prices of exchange-traded futures contracts.

Several factors have contributed to this increasing probability. For the fourth consecutive month, the official inflation rate in the United States has remained well above the 3% threshold. The US-Iran war has significantly increased oil prices, heightened instability across global oil and gas supply chains, and strengthened the long-term risk of rising prices for a wide range of goods.

Recent comments from market analysts have also reinforced expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike. Representatives of Citadel Securities – one of the world’s largest market-making firms – argue that markets are underestimating the probability of an interest rate increase as early as the end of July. They point to persistently high inflation and the relatively strong US labour market. They also emphasise that an unexpected rate hike would strengthen Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the fight against inflation.

If the Federal Reserve ultimately chooses to raise interest rates, this could reduce the attractiveness of US dollar-denominated precious metals (gold, silver, etc.) for both holders of foreign currencies and domestic US investors.

Between July 22 and July 28, the global silver price fell by more than 3.6% to USD 57.55 per troy ounce.

Over the same period, the global palladium price declined by around 1.7% to USD 1,272 per troy ounce.

Since the beginning of this year, palladium prices have fallen by around 26%. Although the market has recently shown signs of a partial recovery, experts believe it is still too early for optimism.

According to data from Norilsk Nickel – the world’s leading palladium supplier – the global surplus of this precious metal in 2026 is expected to reach approximately 300,000 ounces when measured as the difference between total supply and industrial demand. A surplus of around 200,000 ounces is forecast for 2027.

Between July 22 and July 28, the global platinum price declined by more than 2.1% to USD 1,610 per troy ounce.

Over the same period, the global copper price fell by more than 1.1% to USD 13,463 per tonne.