Copper, a metal widely used in industrial production, has recently experienced dynamic periods of price increases. While only a ~3.88% increase in the copper price has been recorded in 2024, the price of this industrial metal has already managed to increase by ~7.6% (to $9350/t) during the first 4 months of 2025. While long-term copper investors are already recording solid gains, analysts find it difficult to agree on the most likely change in the price of copper in mid- to late 2025. In order to assess and select the most likely price scenarios, it is useful to first examine which market factors are currently most actively shaping the demand-supply dynamics for copper and what experts see as the opportunities and threats in this market.

Impact of international trade wars

Naturally, the market price of copper, like any other raw material of strategic importance, is shaped by a number of economic, geopolitical and financial-speculative factors. This year, as established global trade patterns shift, growing uncertainty over copper’s future supply and demand has become an increasingly important factor behind the metal’s rising price.

It is no secret that, during this year, the global trade war launched by US President Trump has been a major contributor to the rise in the prices of various raw materials and commodities. The US has already imposed global import tariffs on steel, aluminium and cars, and has adopted (and temporarily reduced for 90 days) tariffs of varying levels on all of its trading partners. Although copper is currently included in the US list of products exempted from the latest international tariffs, Trump’s order for a study on the possible application of tariffs on copper imports was greeted with extreme unease by the international trading community. Fears of huge import taxes led to a temporary increase in copper imports to the US by more than 7 times during this year’s March. The growing fear of import tariffs and the limited ability of the US to extract refined copper on its own are contributing to the consolidation of the copper price at a much higher level.

Supply-demand imbalance

The copper exchange price is also experiencing growth due to the complex supply-demand situation for the metal in the international market. With China, one of the most important producers of refined copper, reporting sharply depleted metal reserves, the global market is also facing a serious supply problem when it comes to newly refined copper.

The severe shortage of copper concentrate used for the production of refined copper has been driving Chinese smelters to apply negative copper refining rates for some time now. With global demand for copper on the rise and the problematic supply situation, experts are leaning towards an optimistic outlook for copper prices towards the end of 2025.

Copper price forecasts for 2025

Despite the fact that copper spot price as well as copper purchase price have already experienced a sharp upward spike on the market, there is a consensus among many financial experts and economists that the industrial metal could extend its period of record growth until the end of 2025.

• One of the largest energy and commodities trading companies – Mercuria – forecasts copper prices to rise to >12,000 $/t this year.

• One of the world’s largest mining companies – BHP Group – forecasts that global copper demand will grow by as much as 70% by 2050!

• Analysts at the world’s major banks share similar optimism. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the copper price will rise to $10,200/t by the end of the last quarter of the year.

It is emphasized that strong demand for electrification, along with slowing growth in the supply of mined copper, will contribute significantly to the increase in the metal’s price. Given the very optimistic outlook for copper prices and the dynamic developments in global trade sector at the beginning of this year, it is reasonable to expect continued strong copper price movements in the second half of 2025, as well as active investment speculation in the market of this industrial metal. The increasingly tight supply of copper and the growing demand for this metal point to an optimistic outlook for the copper in the coming months, but the unpredictable factor of trade wars encourages caution and prudence when deciding to invest in the copper sector or in companies directly related to this metal.